The New Face of Poverty: How Climate Change is Impacting the Poor and How Sustainability is the Only Way Ahead

Global poverty is on the rise. With the toxic mixture of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the ensuing economic instability, and the mushrooming cost of living crises, for people and communities around the world it is difficult to imagine how life could be any harder or how it could improve. The World Bank estimates that in 2020 the number of people living in extreme poverty rose by 70 million to more than 700 million. The bumpy road to post-pandemic recovery has brought little improvement as the present overall number is only expected to have dropped to around 685 million people. If this global turbulence were to continue then we can expect to still see 574 million people living in extreme poverty i.e. living on less than $2.15 a day, in 2030 (The World Bank, 2022). What these figures don’t tell us is how climate change is set to reverse any reductions we would hope to see over the next seven years. ActionAid estimates that through a mixture of extreme weather patterns, natural hazards and food and water shortages “climate change could push more than 120 million more people into poverty” (ActionAid, 2023). The poorer a person becomes the harder it is for them to recover from further impacts to their lives and livelihoods such as failed harvests, destroyed homes or a health crisis, a trifecta that is inevitable when climate change takes hold. Yet, when we think of poverty, climate change still does not factor into why we believe poverty will occur, instead we seek to blame corrupt and inefficient governments, a bought of bad weather, or we may simply state that poor people must be lazy or that they don’t work hard enough. These pervasive stereotypes, which have grown out of why we believe poverty exists are indeed contributors to poverty but they do not paint an accurate picture of reality. They also leave little room for something as devastating as climate change, which strikes in hundreds of different ways, sometimes taking the form of a sudden heatwave and at other times taking the slow path of gradual sea level rise, all the while leaving destruction in its wake and pushing more and more people into poverty. In truth, there are not enough Freddie Mercury type LiveAid performances in the world to to help wipe out poverty in its entirety, that must instead come from the 1% of the world’s population feeling a sudden and as yet unheard of urge to pay their taxes and no longer exploit workers who are consistently living on the breadline. Despite the growing inequalities in our world there are those who are working to balance sustainability, poverty, and climate change in the hope of developing climate resilient communities and reducing the impact climate change will have on poverty levels. This short paper is aimed at broadening the understanding of the reader regarding the ways climate change influences poverty in order to reduce the stigma experienced by those on or under the poverty line, whilst also taking a short look at those steps which must be taken to relieve the immense burden that has been placed on some of the world’s most vulnerable people, communities and nations. 

The Relationship Between Climate Change and Poverty

The face of poverty is shifting as climate change both exacerbates existing factors which induce and feed into poverty whilst also bringing about new challenges such as climate induced displacement and extreme weather events that are gradually increasing in both frequency and destructive capabilities. Climate change has been described as a ‘threat multiplier’, which can trap members of the world’s most poverty stricken communities in a vicious cycle. This is felt most acutely by those working in sectors such as agriculture where uncertainty in relation to seasons, rainfall patterns and droughts can cause added difficulties related to planning and adapting crops and livestock provisioning (World Vision, 2023). Those who are already living in poverty may not possess the resources, economic or otherwise, to help them to prepare for or rebuild in cases of extreme weather events such as floods or droughts. Their capacity for resilience thereby worsens their existing state of poverty and so the cycle continues with opportunities to pull themselves out of poverty reducing with every passing year. The severe impacts of climate change on the world’s poor is indicative of the inequality experienced across the globe when it comes to the instability caused by climate change. This is exhibited most accurately by 74 of the world’s poorest nations - those served by the International Development Association (IDA) - who account for less than one tenth of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet they are also the hardest hit by climate change (Nishio, 2021). Considering how climate change is capable of affecting just about every aspect of a person’s life, from where they live, to their access to healthcare, to which jobs they can do, it is no wonder that there are concerns over how millions more people could be plunged into poverty as environmental conditions worsen and how this will have an inevitable effect on a state’s economic, political and social stability (McCarthy, 2020). For low-income nations the added complications caused by climate change can also have further implications for their status in international relations (McCarthy, 2020) as they may require aid, resources and investment from wealthier nations but may not have the leverage to demand higher prices for their exports or fend off external entities from entangling themselves in state run systems as part of the aid agreements. In essence, climate change leaves low-income nations open to further exploitation from wealthier nations and business entities as they are forced to trade in critical resources or governing autonomy for necessary aid and in doing so such nations become further marginalised on the international stage leaving them open to insecurity which could possibly develop into violence. Climate change’s unique ability to induce conflict, hunger and poverty is truly unmatched. Unlike wars, which can come to an end or despotic rulers who eventually lose power, thereby returning stability to a nation and its people, climate change is not an enemy one can physically fight back against, it is gradual and requires a collective effort to be tackled, meaning that the poor who are often some of the most disenfranchised members of a nations society are forced to persist and overcome the burden of climate change whilst their autonomy is often stripped from them by those who have brought this new problem to their doorstep (Mercy Corps, 2021). If climate change is allowed to continue unchecked there will be no bouncing back for poor communities. If we were to take as an example a family living in a low income-nation, in a small home based on their nation’s shoreline; with every passing year the shoreline creeps closer to their front door thereby reducing their available land, regular storms destroy their crops, intermittent floods fill their home and damage their precious possessions and finally cyclones tear through their community destroying crucial infrastructure such as schools and hospitals. Every year the family spends money they do not have, finding themselves in debt to moneylenders, whilst trying to rebuild their homes, plant crops for the coming year, treat the waterborne diseases the family suffered from after their freshwater supply was contaminated by the flood and all the while keep trying to educate their children who must walks miles to the next village to go to school. Climate change makes it impossible for such a family to improve their position, this is not a one-off event and there is no reprieve from the continued onslaught of catastrophes, for which government and NGO aid barely scratches the surface of what is required. This example of one family is set to be amplified worldwide, though the factors will vary. Temperature variability has now also been cited to have a significant impact on household incomes and assets, effectively pushing households below the threshold level required to escape poverty and leaving them trapped in the poverty cycle. Evidence from Vietnam, Mexico and Malawi all suggests that a variability in temperature can lead to lower consumption, a major indicator for poverty. Studies from Ghana and Tanzania have shown that a reduction in farming revenue caused by temperature changes has led households to spend less on food and non-food items whilst in Ethiopia climate change has been shown to be keeping kids out of school (Brzezinska, 2021). Climate change is set to be a class divider like nothing before with the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, Philip Alston, commenting in 2019 that “even if current targets are met, tens of millions will be impoverished, leading to widespread displacement and hunger… we risk a ‘climate apartheid’ scenario where the wealthy pay to escape overheating, hunger, and conflict while the rest of the world is left to suffer” (UNHCR, 2019). Alston’s comments speak to a very real concern over both how low-income communities and peoples will be able to handle the repeated impacts of climate change and possibly how they will afford to migrate away from the worst impacts. When faced with starvation or migration the likely choice will be the latter, however, without being able to afford to go through regular channels the small boats, roads lined with migrants and bodies of migrants washing up on shorelines may become an all too regular occurrence the world over. Estimates already suggest that domestic migration of climate displaced peoples could push 200 million by 2050 (Bhargava and Bhargava, 2023). With predictions for overall climate displaced migration reaching 1.2 billion people globally by 2050 (McAllister, 2023), this will present a serious problem for global economic stability and could cause a ripple effect of poverty which goes way beyond those who have been displaced. The range of complex issues linked to both climate change and poverty can most certainly make one feel trapped and unable to see a way out. The World Economic Forum have recognised six specific areas which need our attention and will require sustainable, effective solutions to resolve even the most difficult of its associated challenges. Those six key impacts are health, hunger, water scarcity, education, creating refugees and work-related hazards (World Economic Forum, 2023). 

Health, Hunger & Water Scarcity

Access to adequate healthcare can be a constant source of worry for people living in poverty, particularly in nations where healthcare can only be accessed for a fee or through the kindness of NGO’s and government funded programmes. Climate change will exacerbate existing inequalities in access to healthcare as existing facilities become overwhelmed by a growing demand that they simply cannot meet. Yet, for many outside of low-income or developing nations the connection between climate change and health can feel tenuous, primarily because nations in the global North have thus far managed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and its incumbent effects on healthcare systems. Nevertheless, “globally, warming of 2-3°C might result in more than 150 million additional cases of malaria worldwide, or a 5% increase in the number of people at risk. Increased water shortages would have an impact on water quality and cleanliness, and diarrhoea would become more common. By 2030, it is predicted that there will be 48,000 more diarrhoea-related deaths in children under the age of 15” (World Economic Forum, 2023). For nations which sit in the Northern part of the globe, which have remained out of the bounds of those tropical diseases which have continually placed pressure on healthcare systems around the equator, a very real and dangerous future awaits them, one which they are severely underprepared for. “An estimated 8.4 billion people could be at risk from malaria and dengue by the end of the century if emissions keep rising at current levels”, that is the staggering estimate made by The Lancet and one that includes “a northward shift of the malaria-epidemic belt in North America, central northern Europe, and northern Asia, and a northward shift of the dengue-epidemic belt over central northern Europe and northern USA” (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 2021). Not to mention that regions which already struggle with these chronic diseases will have their last safe havens wiped off the map, such as the highlands in Africa or nations which have historically avoided such diseases but do not have the infrastructure to cope with their arrival, including the Pacific Islands will all have to find new ways to cope with disease on a far larger scale than was previously experienced. 

If the increased threat of disease were not enough to contend with healthcare and the overall health of the global population will also be threatened by growing rates of hunger. The expected impacts climate change is set to impart on the agricultural sector have been well discussed, heavily debated and remain inadequately prepared for. Whilst larger agricultural companies in developed nations can withstand the damage and reinvest with the backing of insurance plans, and their governments are able to outbid developing nations on the international markets to secure interim food supplies, low-income nations and the small scale farmers within them have no such luxury. The heart-breaking scenes coming out of Sub-Saharan Africa should be a warning for every nation across the planet on how climate induced long-term drought can destroy agricultural systems and leave millions reliant on food aid or suffering from food shortages and malnutrition when unable to access such aid. The devastation being wrought by the consistent, severe droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa is a drop in the ocean in comparison to how climate change is set to reshape global food production. Up to half a billion people could be threatened by foot shortages and poverty as agricultural output could decline by as much as 30% in the years ahead. In fact, by 2050 the livelihoods of 250 million smallholder farmers could be threatened precisely at the moment when demand for food is expected to rise by 98% (McCarthy, 2020). The quantity of arable land is on a collective downwards trajectory, in the past fourty years alone one-third of arable land has disappeared and with every passing year more people are left trying to eek out a living on weakening agricultural land. This depletion of arable land is linked to a rapid loss of soil as it disappears 10 to 100 times faster than it is formed; however, research suggests that conservation efforts could help to stall soil erosion and actually begin to turn around the oncoming agricultural crisis (Mercy Corps, 2021). If such measures are not taken climate change will push smallholder farmers who are dependent on their land and livestock for both food and an income off their land and into poverty and hunger. What is crucial to remember here is that small-holder farmers do not just produce crops for themselves, their families and their immediate community but also are the cogs which help to keep the global food import-export system running smoothly. For example, in the early months of 2023 the UK experienced shortages of fresh produce such as vegetables due to unpredictable weather conditions which disrupted harvests in North Africa and Spain (Davey, 2023), this caused the prices of products like cucumbers, tomatoes and other staple vegetables to rise in a time when the nation was already struggling with food price inflation. This has since been linked as a contributing factor to a doubling of the number of UK children living in food poverty to 4 million. The Food Foundation think-tank found that “one in five (22%) of households reported skipping meals, going hungry or not eating for a whole day in January, up from 12% at the equivalent point in 2022” (Butler, 2023). As unpredictable and extreme weather events are set to increase, the empty shelves the UK experienced could become a far more regular occurrence and alongside that the price of food will also increase. The food poverty of the global North may not be as comparable to that in the global South but there is no doubt that climate change will cause hunger and poverty levels to rise. Yet, it is not only food that we need to survive. 

Water scarcity has defined the lives of people living across the driest regions of our planet for millennia and whilst it may have always presented challenges, periods of water scarcity would often fluctuate and eventually the heavens would open and provide a reprieve for the parched earth, people, plants and animals. Today, the face of water scarcity and the incumbent poverty linked to a lack of access to freshwater is changing. From the droughts of the Oaxaca valley in Mexico (Bastianelli, 2022) to the flooding and sea level rise of the Pacific Islands (Reuters, 2016) water scarcity no longer means no rainfall and the drying up of natural water sources, it also means the depletion of groundwater resources due to overuse and mismanagement as well as the contamination of freshwater sources by floodwater coming in from the ocean or through human pollution. Water availability is crucial for survival, to provide drinking water for humans and animals, to provide sanitation to rapidly growing populations and to water the crops which are crucial to feed many billions of people. For those lucky enough to live in regions with plentiful freshwater and who may only experience the odd hose pipe ban every summer it is time to step into reality. “By 2025, there will be 5 billion people on the planet, up from the current 1.7 billion who will be affected by water scarcity” (World Economic Forum, 2023). In less than two years water scarcity, particularly around the sub-tropics, is set to expand and become much more severe and if you want to picture what it may be like a little closer to home then look no further than the Lake District. Known as the wettest place in the UK the River Derwent dried up again this past June for the third year in a row after weeks of hot weather. This drop in water levels has had a knock-on effect to the local wildlife (BBC, 2023) and though no mention has yet been made of the impacts this may have on the local economy, which relies in large part on tourism brought in by the natural scenery and wildlife, it could be said that if such drying events were to continue and spread across the lakes this could have a detrimental impact on the local people who rely on a tourist economy. The effects of water scarcity on the economy can be devastating, particularly for those economies which are agriculture based. Without water neither crops nor livestock can survive, this will lead to people who reside in some of the most drought prone regions in the world facing malnutrition or water shortages. In fact, “it is estimated that up to 600 million more people in Africa could face malnutrition as agricultural systems break down due to climate change impacts. An additional 1.8 billion people could face water shortages, especially in Asia” (ActionAid, 2023). It is believed that water scarcity will be one of the most significant contributors to the deepening inequality between the have’s and the have not’s. For those who are living in poverty the capacity to withstand climate change and water insecurity is determined by the smaller number of available resources available to them, often this leaves them at risk of being the most vulnerable. For those who are commonly affected by floods and drought who are forced to sell their land or livestock at low prices the transfer of resources from the poor to the wealthy is particularly concerning (ActionAid, 2023) as it can leave the homeless, landless or those without adequate resources to maintain their livelihoods long term, thereby throwing more people into poverty as they seek short term financial relief to alleviate the impacts of water shortages. 

Education, Refugees and Work-Related Hazards

Whilst a lack of access to adequate healthcare as well as food and water poverty may provide more obvious examples of how climate change can have a serious negative effect on a persons socio-economic standing, education, displacement and work related hazards are also seriously impacted by environmental hazards. “Many families will survive economic downturns brought on by decimated crops through counter-productive means such as pulling their children out of school to save on fees and/or putting them to work to make up for lost income” (World Economic Forum, 2023). Education can often mean the difference between a life in poverty or a route to a better future. For many girls around the world accessing education can be life changing as they move away from child/forced marriage, early pregnancy, higher rates of domestic violence, increased exposure to STI’s, intergenerational poverty and a life of limited opportunities (Otoo-Oyortey and Pobi, 2010) to one where they can dream and pursue a career, help to provide for their families, choose to marry and have a family in their own time or not at all and to enjoy the improved financial stability and freedom from poverty (UNICEF, 2021). Various organisations are already beginning to draw links between the crises caused by climate change and how “marginalised communities are forced into negative coping mechanisms to survive” (ActionAid, 2023) one of the most common examples of this being girls being forced to drop out of school or to be married prematurely with this being the end result of families struggling to afford to house and feed their daughters. Even when environmental disasters do not strike, the slow onset nature of climate change that brings about serious challenges such as water scarcity can have a serious impact on a girls education. Many women and girls around the world are responsible for household chores such as gathering water. As water becomes scarcer it can leave girls and their mothers making hour-long round trips to the nearest water point; this necessary chore keeps girls out of school and stops them from building their resilience to climate change through education (Concern Worldwide, 2022). It is not only the family finances or water scarcity that makes it a struggle to provide an education for children. Even at state level there may be an imbalance in spending as climate change and its various effects places added strain on the national economy and its spending capacity for other crucial areas such as healthcare, education, job training and other poverty reducing initiatives is reduced (McCarthy, 2020). Spending can be strained yet further when a serious environmental disaster occurs. Education infrastructure and systems can come under serious pressure when large numbers of vulnerable, displaced people are all struggling to access what is left. Schools can rapidly become saturated thereby impacting on the quality of education, infrastructure is often destroyed leaving students to study in damaged buildings without electricity or adequate learning materials, linguistic barriers can become an issue if students come from further afield, this then sets them back in their educational path. Existing students who are affected by environmental changes can begin to experience poverty and be inclined to dropout, displaced students may have to repeat years or take exams again as their previous qualifications may not be recognised in another country, and finally some may experience discrimination, xenophobia or bullying which can easily negatively impact their academic attainment (UNSECO, 2023). 

Climate change is a driver for both internal and now external migration. As it destroys people’s lives and livelihoods in those locations most exposed to its impacts, poverty is often the only outcome. “By 2050, 216 million climate refugees will have been displaced in six world regions, with the top three being in sub-Saharan Africa (86 million), East Asia and the Pacific (49 million), South Asia (40 million)” (World Economic Forum, 2023). Three core climate related drivers have been recognised as causes for creating climate refugees;

• “Disasters: Climate change-induced events like hurricanes and floods displace millions in search of safe shelter. 

• Rising Seas: As sea-levels continue to rise, those living near the ocean will be left with no choice but to move inland (many of those living near the ocean — about 40 per cent of the world’s population — will be at risk of losing their homes). 

• Loss of Livelihoods: Changes brought on by deforestation, overgrazing, and drought destroy crops and kill livestock - famers and their families are forced to move to find new work” (Mercy Corps, 2021). 

The topic of climate displaced people has become one which has often dominated the discourse on climate change, yet, how this translates into severe poverty and possibly violent conflict (LSE, 2022) is discussed far less, probably because we are yet to see the full impacts of these outcomes. From food and water insecurity to a lack of livelihood or the incapacity to carry out traditional livelihoods any number of factors can feed into the decision to migrate, however, they all have something in common which is a certain degree of poverty or perceived reduced socio-economic status and/or an inability to access critical resources. Having refugee status can do little to reverse a person’s poverty status, with reports of betrayal by people smugglers who fail to get their victims to nations which are unaffected by climate change, often with many losing their lives along the way. There have also been reports, for example, of herders in the Horn of Africa walking hundreds of miles with their animals and families in search of water only to find dust, in the process they lose their livestock further reducing their few remaining assets (Concern Worldwide, 2022). When climate migrants head for urban areas in search of shelter, informal settlements often grow up around the riverbanks which run through any given town or city. The favelas tend to be vulnerable to both floods and heatwaves. With every new disaster rural-urban migration grows and urban poverty grows with it, sometimes uncontrollably, leading to numerous poverty stricken communities centred around areas which are already at risk of environmental changes (C40 Cities, 2023). Migration to cities due to the poverty which has been exacerbated by climate change has been ongoing for decades, yet it is not solely rural livelihoods which are disappearing or being forced to change due to the climate crisis. 

Working in extreme conditions, either for a livelihood or to supply food, water and shelter for one’s family, is nothing new for many people living in poverty across the globe. Often those in poverty work in fields that require tremendous amounts of physical labour and hours spent doing backbreaking work for minimal pay, so it can be difficult to imagine how after the heatwaves, droughts, floods, crop failures and loss of livestock the climate crisis could make life yet more difficult. Heat is arguably the most significant factor in work-based hazards related to climate change. Heat can present health risks and restrict workers from physically functioning at full capacity. “Heat stress is projected to reduce total working hours worldwide by 2.2% and global GDP by $2.4 billion in 2030” (World Economic Forum, 2023). It has already been recognised how dangerous outdoor work can become when heat becomes too extreme. What is most concerning here is that those people living in poverty who rely on hard manual labour, particularly outdoors, are the least able to take time off work and will suffer most when work opportunities in the informal economy are reduced due to heatwaves (C40 Cities, 2023). Work-based hazards caused by climate change pose a serious threat for those living in poverty or to those who rely on jobs which require outdoor labour. Extreme weather conditions will inevitably affect how work can be carried out, when it can be carried out, and how much more dangerous these jobs will become. 

Sustainable Adaptations for the Future

Climate change is set to be a core driver for poverty in the decades to come. The numerous interconnected factors of a lack of access to healthcare and education, widespread hunger and displacement, water shortages and dangerous work-related hazards are just a handful of the components which will make up the new face of poverty, all of which have been exacerbated or brought about in new forms by climate change. For communities on the front line of climate change whose voices are often diminished when it comes to prioritising, decision-making and implementing actions that most affect them it is clear that inadequate financing is the bottleneck that is hindering effective climate resilience programs in vulnerable areas. In truth international organisations and policymakers can talk till they are blue in the face about smart agriculture, sustainable water management i.e. rainwater harvesting and high-efficiency irrigation, fuel-efficient stoves, biofuels and solar power, (Concern Worldwide, 2022) yet, without adequate funding there is no viable way to put these strategies in place (McCarthy, 2020). Where domestic resources are insufficient to pay for the necessary measures, the international community must step in to “help poor and vulnerable countries adapt by providing financial support and developing institutional capacity” (World Economic Forum, 2023). With the available funds steps can be taken to build climate-resilient livelihoods and food sources by connecting farmers with the information and tools their need to grow hardier yields and raise livestock. We can help farmers to diversify their crops and redesign farmland to help save the soil from erosion which will ensure an income even in difficult times. Farmers and herders should be given access to micro loans and insurance products to help them to handle the risk of what is becoming a less stable livelihood. Work can be done to reinforce river embankments and to help prepare communities for flooding through early warning systems and with the provision of evacuation routes. Finally, and possibly most importantly we must work collectively and diplomatically to address climate induced conflicts by facilitating resource-sharing agreements and having communities work collectively to preserve natural resources (Mercy Corps, 2021). Through such methods we should be able to tackle both climate change and poverty at the same time. Nevertheless, regardless of how many new sustainable adaptation policies we implement nothing will work better to reduce poverty and combat climate change than to collectively reduce our emissions by restricting consumerism and taking the strain off our natural resources and ecosystems, through the widespread implementation of green energy programmes and by making billions of small sustainable lifestyle changes which can collectively make a big impact. 

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