SDG #1 No Poverty – and the Impact of COVID-19
SDG #1: No Poverty is considered by most to be at the core of the Sustainable Development Goals. Since their inception, the SDGs have always had “Development” at the heart of their mission, and with that comes a fundamental improvement of the livelihoods of billions around the globe. In essence, to eradicate absolute poverty, and to do so sustainably, would demonstrate the successful achievement of all the Sustainable Development Goals – not just SDG #1.
The Goal to “End Poverty in All Its Forms, Everywhere” could be seen as dramatic and somewhat impossible to achieve to many people, although global trends were extremely positive when the UN established this goal in 2015. From 2010 through to 2015, poverty declined from 15.7% to 10%, and was on track to be eradicated in full by 2030 – ahead of the goal of reducing extreme poverty to less than 3% by 2030. This ties in with the Agenda 2030, from which these SDGs were conceived and implemented.
However, by 2019 the ambition to eradicate poverty had somewhat stagnated. The percentage of those living in extreme poverty had reduced from 10% to only 8.2% in 4 years. This meant that at this rate, extreme poverty would only reduce to 6% by 2030 – missing the target set by the UN when they established the SDGs. According to the UN’s progress report for 2019, people who continue to live in extreme poverty face deep, entrenched deprivation often exacerbated by violent conflicts and vulnerability to disasters. They also noted that strong social protection systems and government spending on key services often help those left behind get back on their feet and escape poverty, but these services need to be brought to scale – which was lagging behind globally as the 2019 review was conducted.
The key category of people who remained in extreme poverty at the end of 2019 were young workers who were being paid extremely low amounts per month to do manual tasks. This was particularly evident in Sub-Saharan Africa where the share of the working population in extreme poverty stood at 38%. The key to alleviating this issue were social protection systems to provide a safety net for the vulnerable – but this was not a reality for 55% of people globally (as many as 4 billion people) who were not protected by any social protection cash benefits. Although this varies significantly globally (87% in Sub-Saharan Africa to 14% in Europe), this was still significantly too high to be able to reduce the number of people in extreme poverty to down to 3% by 2030.
As noted above, going into 2020 the situation was vulnerable and the progress to eradicate extreme poverty was already decelerating. However, COVID-19, the largest global pandemic in 100 years, was already starting to spread rapidly with governments moving into lockdown globally throughout the start of the year. The implications of COVID-19 on poverty are very significant, as governments globally are forced to stop people interacting and working in order to limit the spread of the disease.
In 2020 it was estimated that, for the first time in decades, the number of people living in extreme poverty extended from 8.4% to 8.8%. In itself, the shift does not seem massive, but in nominal terms this was considered to be somewhere between 40m-60m people globally. By 2021, the UN estimated that this number had increased to 74m people since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Incrementally, the UN stated that “the triple threat of COVID-19, conflict and climate change makes the global goal of ending poverty by 2030 beyond reach unless immediate and substantial policy actions are implemented.”
In particular, COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the informal economy, which had already made up a significant amount of the extreme poor worldwide ahead of the pandemic. Within this category, the crisis has also had a further impact on young women who make up a significant proportion of the informal economy. Significantly – huge swathes of certain parts of society have been impacted – as prior to COVID-19 it was normal that families based in the informal economy could deal with shocks to their income through working together – if, for example, a family member had got ill the rest of the family would be able to support that individual. Now, however, with extended periods of lockdown, whole families were going without pay which had a significant impact on the entire family’s quality of life.
Forecasts for the impact of COVID-19 on poverty are wide and varied. It is clear, however, that there will be a significant impact of a period of years. Andy Sumner from King’s College London estimates that if the global income per head falls by 20%, which it may for many months while lockdowns persist in some of the poorest nations on earth, that up to 420m more people will drop into extreme poverty. This would, in effect, extend the number of people living in extreme poverty by more than 3%, taking it to a level that has not been seen in almost a decade. While this may not be permanent, it is important to note that lockdowns currently persist in some of the poorest countries on earth, with the largest proportion of informal workers. India, for example, entered a dramatic lockdown in March 2021 as cases of COVID-19 skyrocketed. Since then, it has been estimated that over 140m people have lost their job due to the lockdown – more than 10% of the total population. These people are at serious risk of dropping into extreme poverty, and oftentimes will have to return to villages outside of the major cities in which they are mostly based in order to be supported by their extended families.
This has been seen in poor countries worldwide. In Bangladesh, where the University of Manchester had been conducting research on families with low incomes, it was noted that average family incomes (for the research cohort) dropped from $1000 to $300 per month in April. Equally, in Kenya, 80% of individuals reported a drop in income in April. Globally, UN forecasts for extreme poverty are severely concerning. With a 10% economic contraction, extreme poverty could extend to 12% of all people worldwide – with a 20% economic contraction, this could extend to 16%.
It is clear that the world faces a crisis which is once in a generation. COVID-19 was entirely unexpected, and its implications were never factored into planning for the Sustainable Development Goals. It is a fact, however, that we will have to manage the implications such that we can all help achieve the targets set out in the SDGs, whether that be on time or later. SDG #1 on No Poverty is at the centre of these goals, and currently projections are bleak for the impact of COVID-19 on global extreme poverty levels. Policymakers have their work cut out to consider potential remedies for the global impact on poverty long into the future.
