Small Island Developing States and Cop26; The Modern-Day David and Goliath
Introduction to Cop26 and the Aims of Small Island Developing States
In November 2021 World Leaders, Policy Makers, Climate Scientists, Environmental Activists, Businesspeople, Community Groups and Climate Protestors, all convened in Glasgow (UK) for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. As the date of commencement drew closer the initial utopian images of green energy, reduced plastic and a world dedicated to stopping the oncoming crisis morphed into a less promising picture. For those in the know, the inner political cogs had been whirring for some time and not all for the benefit of the climate. Unexpected alliances, underhand deals and a serious lack of commitment to making real world changes seeped out into public view, which disheartened many, but surprised few. Naturally, Covid-19 also played its part as leaders of Pacific Island states struggled to reach Glasgow, contributing to the innate inequality visible in all international political institutions and conferences. As Boris, Biden and Trudeau nodded their heads in unison to Mia Mottley (president of Barbados), one of the greatest orators of the event, making a heartfelt and powerful plea for change one cannot help but feel as though they presided over the conference like a group of Roman Emperors at a gladiatorial fight, turning their thumb downwards in unison and sealing the deadly fate of an innocent person or peoples. Whilst this may appear an extreme and visceral image, it is no less so than the worst results of climate change.
For many, Cop26 was hoped to be a defining moment for global climate action, which would result in tangible changes to the lives of millions who are already suffering from the impacts of climate change. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) from across the Caribbean, South Pacific and Indian Ocean came to COP26 certain of their aims but unsure of how they will achieve them. For nations like St. Lucia the phrase “One Point Five to Stay Alive” rings in the ears of Nobel Laureates such as Sir Derek Walcott who suggests that “a morning could come when governments might ask what happened not only to our forests and our bays, but to a whole people”. It is clear that projections for the Caribbean region are not encouraging, pointing “to rising sea levels, hotter temperatures (predicted to reach a rise of 1.76 degrees by the end of the century), more variable rainfall with increased drying (by almost 17%), increased sea surface temperatures and more intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes” (Louisy et al., 2021). Such extreme changes would adversely affect the livelihoods of islanders across the region who already occupy a highly vulnerable geographic space. Not to mention the pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities and volatile political movements that have plagued nations such as Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago etc. Such complex circumstances can and do contribute to SIDS inability to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Mohamed Nasheed (former president of the Maldives) has echoed the thoughts of his Caribbean cousins in supporting the need for a 1.5-degree cap as well as pushing for wealthier nations to fulfil their promises and supply the required $100 billion a year climate finance with the caveat that such cash contributions, though useful in alleviating certain here and now issues, cannot be utilised as a long-term substitute for emissions cutting action (Watts, 2021).
Some of the strongest and most emotive voices also came from Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) who have in recent years become the poster child of climate change and a testing ground, no longer for atomic weapons, but for the other impacts of destructive human behaviour (i.e. pollution, carbon emissions and increased pressure on flora and fauna). While the indigenous communities in this region have been “raising the alarm” for decades, having noted the changing behaviour of local wildlife such as whales (Alsford, 2020) few beyond the region have taken note of these changes let alone allowed it to enter mainstream public discourse. For Pacific Island Nations, several core aims were carried into COP26;
“Fossil fuels are fossils, keep them in the ground to save the Pacific! No new coal, oil, or gas projects, and an immediate end to all fossil fuel subsidies, everywhere.
Show real commitment; your NDCs must limit global heating to 1.5 degrees, we’re already out of time in the islands. Sustained, radical, and socially just cuts to emissions are required now, not later.
Show us the money! Mobilize all of the promised $100 billion annually until 2025, and agree that Polluters Must Pay the $trillions actually necessary for developing and maintaining resilient Pacific peoples and communities.
Loss and Damage is life and death in the Pacific: Political will is required now to finance and deliver support to the Pacific people who are already in the process of losing everything.
Climate change is a symptom of deeper injustice and inequalities. Gender justice and women’s human rights and empowerment is a precondition for climate, social, economic, ecological, and climate justice.
Climate justice will prevail. Your emissions are already responsible for the loss of universal human rights, and environmental rights of Pacific people, communities and ecosystems. We will see you in the courts of law, and in all other forums, to protect and retain our Rights.
Global climate negotiations at COP26 must be inclusive, intersectional, and intergenerational: Do not dare to marginalize the voices of Pacific Island Peoples” (350.org).
Such demands reflect the feelings of many across the region and beyond. As Pacific Island leaders become the voices of reason, backed by years of experience, few could fail to see that their reality will become our future and that the sword of Damocles currently hanging over the heads of the world’s population will bring the privileged lives lived in much of the global north and in pockets of the global south to a grinding halt in the not so distant future. SIDS across the globe are understandably worried that any requests put to the attending nations of COP26 will require years of negotiations and fighting through red tape and have recognised that their aims can no longer be limited to boardrooms and international conferences; resultantly, they have switched tact and ensured that their situation and message is heard across the planet by utilising the spectrum of news and social media options. This approach has introduced their reality to a wider audience and inspired activism in people who previously seldom interacted with the subject of climate change.
For the three Pacific Island nations (Fiji, Tuvalu and Palau) who were able to attend the conference with political representatives, there was an added struggle as the strength in numbers which would normally provide the clout needed to make any kind of headway in international conferences and agreements was lost. This left Pacific Islands more reliant on the Caribbean contingent of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) to plead their case, which has been reflected on by Frances Fuller (a negotiator for Antigua and Barbuda) who says “We are a group of very small countries that don’t have a significant amount of political leverage… But we have strength in numbers and the moral high ground – though that’s sometimes not enough to move the needle (Murugesu, 2021)”. For Pacific Islanders who face significant relocation costs the paltry offer $100 billion a year to spread out amongst Small Island Developing States is simply not enough, Fiji plans to relocate 75 communities inland to escape rising seas, up from the 40 that were originally planned, the increasing costs of moving people and creating new settlements will only increase in the years to come (Doyle, 2021). As Pacific Island nations are already in the process of doing so their reduced presence at COP26 made any attempts at extracting such a high but necessary figure from the developed world an extremely difficult task as the other AOSIS members could not rigorously support such plans without all Pacific Islands in attendance.
Whilst every attendee arrived in Glasgow with their own set of aims and pledges, they were collectively willing to make commitments in four key areas, which all nations agreed to work on, to a greater of lesser extent, which should be kept in mind moving forward in order to measure the successes and failures of the conference:
"Secure global net zero by mid-century and keep 1.5 degrees within reach; Countries are being asked to come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets that align with reaching net zero by the middle of the century.
Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats; The climate is already changing and it will continue to change even as we reduce emissions, often with devastating effects.
Mobilise finance; To deliver on our first two goals, developed countries must make good on their promise to mobilise at least $100bn in climate finance per year by 2020.
Work together to deliver; We can only rise to the challenges of the climate crisis by working together. At COP26 we must finalise the Paris Rulebook (the detailed rules that make the Paris Agreement operational) and accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis through collaboration between governments, businesses and civil society (UN Climate Change Conference UK, 2021)."
What Agreements Were Reached
The agreements reached at COP26 were met with disappointment and an overall sense of disillusion as delegates departed on their long journeys home, protestors left the streets and returned to their keyboards, and speakers from indigenous communities walked away broken in the knowledge that for many their home, history and culture could become the content of myths and picture books for their grandchildren. The great hopes for COP26 clearly exceeded the reality of what governments and large businesses were willing to concede and in this we have perhaps created humanities greatest downfall.
The following are the key areas where resolution was achieved:
Emissions and 1.5 Degrees
In the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) Emissions Gap Report 2021 NDCs were shown to put the world on track to hit a temperature rise of 2.7°C. The commitments introduced at COP26 by 120 countries will only take 7.5% off of the predicted 2030 emissions. This will not be enough to meet the 1.5°C target, which will require a 55% reduction and extended net-zero commitments (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021). Next year, countries plan to meet and pledge further cuts to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which according to scientists are necessary to prevent a “climate catastrophe” (BBC News, 2021).
Fossil Fuels and Coal
World leaders agreed at COP26 to phase out subsidies that artificially lower the price of natural gas, coal and oil (BBC News, 2021). With 34 governments and five development banks ending financial support by 2022, billions of dollars will shift away from this sector (van Asselt, 2021) and hopefully into green energy. Meanwhile, in the private sector, investors and financial institutions are divesting holdings in fossil fuel as EU’S largest pension fund agreed to step away from fossil fuels prior to COP26 (van Asselt. 2021).
Coal became one of the most contentious subjects at COP26. As news of China and India’s unlikely partnership broke, the two nations quickly became the villains of COP26. However, with careful consideration this appears to be something of a “convenient narrative” as America produces ten times the carbon emissions of India per person and both China and India’s emissions remain substantially lower than almost all developed countries (Parsons and Taylor, 2021). There has been more than an element of painting these two nations as enemies of the cause whilst western nations benefit from a comparatively better public image. Though it is true that the intervention of China and India as well as Australia did weaken the commitment to “phase down rather than phase out” coal (BBC News, 2021) it is important to understand the wider context and impact of an undelivered promise to deliver financial aid agreed upon at Paris, which was supposed to help developing countries move away from coal and towards cleaner sources of energy (Parsons and Taylor, 2021).
Reducing Methane Emissions
Methane emissions are not all the product of large scale farming that is becoming more common with every passing day; however, its contribution to methane emissions remains significant even in the face of big industry. With support from the European Union the UNEP has launched the International Methane Emissions Observatory to help monitor commitments made by state actors in the Global Methane Pledge (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021). This scheme will hopefully cut 30% of methane emissions by 2030 if the 100 countries which made the commitments are able to keep their promises (BBC News, 2021).
Nature Based Solutions
Ecosystems and the natural world were at the heart of COP26 as leaders from 100 countries - with about 85% of the world’s forests - promised to stop deforestation by 2030 and pledged $19.2 billion to achieve this end. Although previously such initiatives have been badly funded there are hopes that the expected increased financing will ease the transition from deforestation towards a green and more tree filled future (BBC News, 2021). Unfortunately, at this time there is no way to police these commitments to ensure that governments are adhering to their promises. Despite the cost-effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation it currently only accrues 5% of global climate finance. One must hope that the calls of UN Secretary General António Guterres’ to commit 50% of climate finance to adaptation will come to fruition (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021). With deforestation and the destruction of ecosystems ramping back up after the lull caused by Covid-19 we must collectively hope that the commitments made at COP26 will be acted upon sooner rather than later.
Financing
“Financial organisations controlling $130tn agreed to back “clean” technology, such as renewable energy, and direct finance away from fossil fuel-burning industries”. This was done in the knowledge that governments will need to harness the power of private companies to meet net zero targets, which may prove challenging as certain giants of industry hold sway over governments and are oftentimes the neck which turns the head. Many environmental organisations see the financing as a greenwashing PR exercise and not a serious attempt to end support for fossil fuels (BBC News, 2021). Unfortunately, the $100 billion target which many SIDS were also hoping for will not be met until 2023, though there have been hints that Japan could come to the rescue through money leveraging other funds enabling the target to be hit by as early as 2022. This could prove to be an unrealistic expectation; however, it cannot hurt to be hopeful.
For SIDS, the agreements made at COP26 could prove successful if they were to be properly monitored and tracked over the coming years. The accountability of nation states and those powerful private enterprises which reside within them is seriously lacking and for the members of AOSIS this is simply not good enough. For some, the failure to meet the 1.5-degree aim is akin to a “declaration of war” on the Pacific Islands communities and peoples. If warming goes beyond 1.5 degrees, then the global north and certain developing nations are in a sense asking the leaders of countries such as Tuvalu, Kiribati etc. to sign away their sovereignty and their right to exist on this planet (Wilson, 2021). Few could imagine the likes of America, the UK, France etc. being willing to do the same to make way for the greed of others. The principle difference is that these SIDS do not have the resources or political clout to contest their circumstances alone and this is why they need comprehensive public backing from across the world to support their cause. The inequity of a group of islands who contribute only 0.03% of global greenhouse gas emissions fighting for their survival against nations which have caused the current climate crisis (Wilson, 2021) is felt across the region and beyond. It is of no surprise that Pacific Islands feel a “deep sense of betrayal” (Nielson and Jackson, 2021).
SIDS in our Post COP26 World
Although the positively focused activity that took place during both in the lead up to COP26 and the event itself ensured that progress was made in pushing nations towards more rapid action the growing concerns that post-COP26 the momentum would dissipate (McGrath, 2021) and the can would be kicked down the road for another year appears to be materialising. As a new morning breaks on COP26 it appears that commitments made in good faith are now struggling to find their feet like a new-born giraffe, tripping, stumbling and occasionally falling face down in the dirt. President Biden struggles to push his Build Back Better Act through congress due to the customary political infighting and lobbying which regularly impedes positive progress in American climate policy, fears have set in that the much-needed unified approach and warm atmosphere produced by the attending nations of COP26 will be decimated if Biden is not able to follow through on vitally important promises made. If this does prove to be the case there will not only be ramifications for the climate but also for the dynamics of international relations and power structures as well. As China flexes its political muscles, the “West is declining” (McGrath, 2021) at a rapid rate and we must all be wary of how long it will be before climate policy, at least in the international arena, is no longer dictated by Western nations. "The Chinese side will see how they are treated vis-a-vis others and make its judgment on whether the game is fair, and most importantly, if it is about the environment at all, or just geopolitics and trade," Li Shuo (Greenpeace East Asia) told BBC News (McGrath, 2021).
For SIDS, not one of their key demands were met in its entirety. As the Hon. Gaston Brown (Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda) speculates on the future of the Caribbean islands he has made it very clear that if World Leaders meet their pledges it “should ensure our nations are not entirely submerged by rising sea levels”; however, as Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley so persuasively and emphatically pronounced at COP26 “1.5°C is what we need to survive, 2°C is a death sentence” (Caricom Today, 2021). Anything beyond the 1.5 degrees’ increase will have significant implications on the ways in which people live. As Tina Stege (Climate Envoy for the Marshall Islands) stressed, flooding and high tides are already being experienced in her country and many other Pacific Islands at just 1.1 degrees, any more warming does not bare to think about (Abraham et al., 2021). As the impacts of climate change worsen, SIDS will have to cope with damage caused by climate induced natural disasters and their coping mechanisms should include easy and reliable access to climate financing to help relieve their problems and build back quickly and sustainably. Unfortunately, at present, only $80 million of the promised $100 billion pledged by wealthier nations has materialised (Abraham et al., 2021) and the process through which nations can access these funds continues to be slow and onerous. There is a long road ahead for SIDS, which will perhaps be exacerbated by the challenging conditions likely to be present at the next two COP meetings to be held in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, neither of which hold shining climate records. Continued progress may prove something of an uphill battle; however, there are still glimmers of hope to be found, often in unexpected places.
COP26 and the climate crisis has induced an interesting reaction from SIDS. Their position on the world stage has shifted and the clear growth in confidence and influence could provide a new dawn for many nations and communities. The SIDS strength of will and commitment to the cause has brought embarrassment and to some degree shame to those developed nations who appear to make and withdraw pledges on the turn of a coin. The inhabitants of the Pacific Islands, and their governments are now looking hard at their past to develop effective plans for resilience in the future. As Brianna Fruean (Samoan climate activist and the youth representative of the Pacific Climate Warriors council of elders) so accurately says, “my ancestors didn’t use compasses to navigate the ocean, and if the summit in Glasgow fails then we, the people, can move the canoe to safety by pushing those in power towards a real course of action. For hundreds of years my people have been resilient. We fought back against our colonisers and we have made them change. As the rest of the world begins to suffer from the climate emergency as we Pacific islanders already are, we can teach you how to fight back like us” (Fruean, 2021). It appears that the peoples of the Pacific and their worldwide supporters are truly finding their voices and in some individual cases developing into the future leaders our planet needs. Nations such as the Marshall Islands are paving the way with their National Adaptation Plan, which is a forward-thinking initiative ensure that migration remains a choice and not a necessity. By bringing together “multiple sectors (health, emergency response, education, housing, infrastructure, ecosystems management, etc.) to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation into national policy,” they write. “Ensuring habitability of the islands and atolls—through the protection of livelihoods, culture, physical well-being, and mental health—is central to the purpose” (East West Centre, 2022). Such actions should prove effective if the backing of their people as well as the international community can be attained. As other SIDS produce similar plans of action it will be the responsibility of the wealthier nations to provide funding for projects when needed and to ensure that they do not hinder such plans in order to access natural resources and fulfil their appetites to consume and/or damage our planets bounty.
Arresting climate change and mitigating its impact is a mammoth undertaking in which it is essential that those nations with smaller economies, little political influence, and in some cases reducing populations such as SIDS, must stand up to the political giants and immense conglomerates of this world and tell them ‘no more!’. They are not however alone in this fight, as the metaphorical rock they will be throwing will not be made of stone like David’s, but of people, whose collective support and voices continue to have an enormously positive effect. It is easy to think that all change must come from above, but this is an excuse. SIDS must continue to make their voices heard across the world and consumers, particularly those in the West, need to heed their words and reduce the damage created through industry and other pollutants. If we change our individual attitudes and behaviours then governments and industry will have no choice but to adapt to the 'climate conscious' conditions set by people - it is possible that our collective efforts could yet prove to be the difference between recoverable damage and disaster, which the latter of will be first felt by the SIDS, but inevitably and rapidly increase in breadth and scale. We shall leave you with this quote to ruminate upon…
"I have found that it is the small everyday deed of ordinary folks that keep the darkness at bay. Small acts of kindness and love." ~ Gandalf (J.R.R. Tolkien ~ The Hobbit)"
References
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● Abraham, Ben, et al. “Good COP, Bad COP: After the Mixed Results of COP26, What's Next?” Just Security, 24 November 2021, https://www.justsecurity.org/79313/good-cop-bad-cop-after-the-mixed-results-of-cop26-whats-next/.
● Alsford, Dr. Niki. “500 whales stranded in Tasmania – indigenous elders are best guides to understanding this tragedy.” The Conversation, 2 10 2020, https://theconversation.com/500-whales-stranded-in-tasmania-indigenous-elders-are-best-guides-to-understanding-this-tragedy-146962?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton&fbclid=IwAR3x0MuVjlpIRFzCMcHt389xLU82ZJpaFexKaRti2GIRsykebE8_uAj0MvE.
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● Fruean, Brianna. “Pacific islanders aren't just victims – we know how to fight the climate crisis | Brianna Fruean.” The Guardian, 2 November 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/02/pacific-islanders-fight-climate-crisis-cop26.
● Louisy, Dame Pearlette, et al. “Voices from Small Island Developing States: priorities for COP26 and beyond.” The School of Education Blog, 12 November 2021, https://schoolofeducation.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2021/11/12/voices-from-small-island-developing-states-priorities-for-cop26-and-beyond/.
● McGrath, Matt. “Climate change: Storm clouds gather after COP26.” BBC, 29 December 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-59744522.
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● Nielson, Judith, and Cherelle Jackson. “Cop26: Pacific delegates condemn 'monumental failure' that leaves islands in peril.” The Guardian, 15 November 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/15/cop26-pacific-delegates-condemn-monumental-failure-that-leaves-islands-in-peril.
● Parsons, Daniel, and Martin Taylor. “Coal: why China and India aren't the climate villains of COP26.” The Conversation, 17 November 2021, https://theconversation.com/coal-why-china-and-india-arent-the-climate-villains-of-cop26-171879.
● Tolkien, JRR. “Quote by JRR Tolkien: “I have found that it is the small everyday deed...”” Goodreads, 1948, https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7975155-i-have-found-that-it-is-the-small-everyday-deed.
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● UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021. “COP26 Goals.” UN Climate Change Conference UK 2021, UK Government & United Nations Climate Change, https://ukcop26.org/cop26-goals/.
● van Asselt, Harro. “Breaking a Taboo: Fossil Fuels at COP26.” EJIL: Talk!, 26 November 2021, https://www.ejiltalk.org/breaking-a-taboo-fossil-fuels-at-cop26/.
● Watts, Jonathan. “Ex-Maldives president to tell Cop26: do not compromise on 1.5C.” The Guardian, 1 November 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/01/ex-maldives-president-to-tell-cop26-do-not-compromise-on-15c.
● Wilson, Catherine. “'Declaration of war': Pacific islands blast COP26 pledges.” Al Jazeera, 27 November 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/27/declaration-of-war-pacific-islands-blast-cop26-pledges.
